Regardless of large US assault and dying of ayatollah, regime change in Iran is unlikely

After the biggest buildup of U.S. warships and aircraft in the Middle East in a long time, American and Israeli army forces launched a massive assault on Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.

President Donald Trump has referred to as the assaults “major combat operations” and has urged regime change in Tehran. Iranian media reported Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed within the strikes.

To higher perceive what this implies for the U.S. and Iran, Alfonso Serrano, a U.S. politics editor at The Dialog, interviewed Donald Heflin, a veteran diplomat who now teaches at Tufts College’s Fletcher Faculty.

Widespread assaults have been reported throughout Iran, following weeks of U.S. army buildup within the area. What does the size of the assaults let you know?

I believe that Trump and his administration are going for regime change with these large strikes and with all of the ships and a few troops within the space. I believe there’ll most likely be a pair extra days’ price of strikes. They’ll begin off with the time-honored technique of attacking what’s generally known as command and management, the nerve facilities for controlling Iran’s army. From media reporting, we already know that the residence of Khamenei was attacked.

What’s the U.S. strategic finish recreation right here?

Regime change goes to be troublesome. We heard Trump as we speak name for the Iranian people to bring the government down. Within the first place, that’s troublesome. It’s onerous for individuals with no arms of their palms to deliver down a really tightly managed regime that has numerous arms.

The second level is that U.S. historical past in that space of the world just isn’t good with this. Chances are you’ll recall that in the Gulf War of 1990-1991, the U.S. principally encouraged the Iraqi people to rise up, after which made its personal resolution to not assault Baghdad, to cease brief. And that has not been forgotten in Iraq or surrounding nations. I might be stunned if we noticed a well-liked rebellion in Iran that basically had an opportunity of bringing the regime down.

Do you see the opportunity of U.S. troops on the bottom to result in regime change?

I’ll stick my neck out right here and say that’s not going to occur. I imply, there could also be some small particular forces despatched in. That’ll be saved quiet for some time. However so far as giant numbers of U.S. troops, no, I don’t assume it’s going to occur.

Two causes. First off, any president would really feel that was extraordinarily dangerous. Iran’s a big country with a big military. The dangers you’d be taking are giant quantities of casualties, and you might not achieve what you’re making an attempt to do.

However Trump, specifically, regardless of the army strike towards Iran and the one against Venezuela, just isn’t an enormous fan of massive army interventions and struggle. He’s a man who will ship in fighter planes and small particular forces items, however not 10,000 or 20,000 troops.

And the rationale for that’s, all through his profession, he does nicely with somewhat little bit of chaos. He doesn’t thoughts creating a little bit of chaos and determining a method to make a revenue on the opposite aspect of that. Conflict is an excessive amount of chaos. It’s actually onerous to foretell what the end result goes to be, what all of the ramifications are going to be. All through his first time period and the primary yr of his second time period, he has proven no inclination to ship floor troops anyplace.

Talking of President Trump, what are the dangers he faces?

One threat is happening proper now, which is that the Iranians might get fortunate or sensible and handle to attack a really good target and kill lots of people, like one thing in Jerusalem or Tel Aviv or a U.S. army base.

The second threat is that the assaults don’t work, that the supreme chief and whoever else is taken into account the political management of Iran survives, and the U.S. winds up with egg on its face.

The third threat is that it really works to a sure extent. You are taking out the highest individuals, however then who steps into their sneakers? I imply, return and take a look at Venezuela. Most individuals would have thought that who was going to wind up profitable on the finish of that was the top of the opposition. However it wound up being the vice president of the old regime, Delcy Rodríguez.

I can see an analogous situation in Iran. The regime has sufficient depth to outlive the death of several of its leaders. The factor to observe might be who winds up within the prime jobs, hardliners or realists. However the one establishment in Iran sturdy sufficient to succeed them is the military, the Revolutionary Guards specifically. Would that be an enchancment for the U.S.? It is determined by what their angle was. The identical angle that the vice president of Venezuela has been taking, which is, “Look, it is a reality of life. We higher negotiate with the Individuals and determine a way ahead we are able to each reside with.”

However these guys are fairly hardcore revolutionaries. I imply, Iran has been underneath revolutionary leadership for 47 years. All these guys are true believers. I don’t know if we’ll have the ability to work with them.

Any final ideas?

I believe the timing is fascinating. If you happen to return to final yr, Trump, after being in workplace somewhat and watching the scenario between Israel and Gaza, was given a gap, when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attacked Qatar.

A variety of conservative Mideast regimes, who didn’t have an enormous downside with Israel, basically stated “That’s going too far.” And Trump was in a position to make use of that as an excuse. He was in a position to basically say, “Okay, you’ve gone too far. You’re actually taking threat with world peace. All people’s gonna sit on the desk.”

I believe the identical factor’s occurring right here. I consider many nations would like to see regime change in Iran. However you possibly can’t go into the nation and say, “We don’t just like the political management being elected. We’re going to do away with them for you.” What typically occurs in that scenario is individuals start to rally across the flag. They start to rally across the authorities when the bombs begin falling.

However in the previous couple of months, we’ve seen an enormous human rights crackdown in Iran. We might by no means know the number of people the Iranian regime killed in the previous couple of months, however 10,000 to fifteen,000 protesters appears a minimal.

That’s the excuse Trump can use. You may promote it to the Iranian individuals and say, “Look, they’re killing you within the streets. Overlook about your issues with Israel and the U.S. and every part. They’re actual, however you’re getting killed within the streets, and that’s why we’re intervening.” It’s a little bit of a fig leaf.

Now, as I stated earlier, the issue with that is in case your subsequent line is, “You recognize, we’re going to actually soften this regime up with bombs; now it’s your time to exit within the streets and convey the regime down.” I could eat these phrases, however I don’t assume that’s going to occur. The regime is simply too sturdy for it to be introduced down by naked palms.

This text was up to date on Feb 28, 2026, to incorporate affirmation of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s dying.