Washington’s allies within the Persian Gulf have discovered themselves ready they’ve lengthy sought to keep away from: on the entrance line and bearing the brunt of a widening Middle East conflict.
Having been dragged right into a conflict of alternative by the U.S. – one which many around the world are calling a war of aggression – all six Gulf Cooperation Council nations have been struck by Iranian retaliatory assaults in response.
Navy services in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have all been hit. However the missiles and drones from Iran have been geared toward civilian infrastructure, too, together with airport, ports and lodges within the opening days of U.S. and Israeli operations in opposition to Iran.
In scale and scope, the barrage marks a significant departure from Iran’s earlier response to being attacked by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes. In distinction, throughout a 12-day war in June 2025, Tehran solely attacked one base in Qatar, and even then forewarned authorities in Doha.
As an alternative, what is happening within the area is a state of affairs that planners in Persian Gulf capitals have long warned about: a deliberate try by Tehran to widen battle and hit nations it sees as allied to the West.
As an expert on Gulf dynamics, I see the unfurling occasions as undoing years of labor to de-risk the region and putting in jeopardy the distinctive promoting level and enterprise fashions which have underpinned the Gulf states’ world rise.
Fadel Senna/AFP via Getty Images
A cornered regime combating for survival
Ever because the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas and different Palestinian militants on Israel, policymakers within the Gulf nations have sought to keep away from the regionalization of battle.
Qatar led the way in which in mediating between Israel and Hamas, whereas Oman has done the same with the U.S. and Iran. In the meantime, Saudi Arabia has maintained regular dialogue with Iran to de-escalate regional tensions.
Every of the successive escalations between Israel and Iran – in April and October 2024 after which in June 2025, with the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes – introduced the area nearer to, with out tipping over into, all-out conflict.
However Iran’s actions in the opening days following what Washington has named “Operation Epic Fury” have signaled that the comparative restraint it confirmed through the 12-day conflict is firmly off the desk.
The Islamic Republic is now a cornered regime combating for its survival. As such, it’s lashing out and looking for to unfold the ache to regional neighbors. The logic on this method is that Gulf nations may put stress on the U.S., which can concern the cascading prices of a protracted regional battle.
Gulf nations are additionally apparent targets for Iran. With Iran missing the aptitude to hit the U.S. mainland via typical weapons, the American military bases that dot the Gulf region are throughout the attain of Tehran’s ballistic arsenal.
Psychological influence on Gulf nations
The size of the Iranian assaults on targets within the Gulf nations within the opening two days of the present battle underscores the extent to which Iran’s response now differs from that of June 2025: Within the first two days of the battle, Iran had fired at least 390 ballistic missiles and 830 drones on the Gulf states. By comparability, the Iranian strike on the Al-Udeid air base in Qatar final yr concerned 14 ballistic missiles and was a one-off assault on a single goal.
Air protection techniques in Gulf nations have neutralized a lot of the incoming Iranian missiles, so far, and precise harm and casualties have been limited to a handful of deaths and accidents within the dozens.
However it’s the intangible and psychological influence on Gulf cities beneath assault that threatens to inflict profound harm on the status and picture of cities reminiscent of Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha. In recent times, Gulf Cooperation Council nations have offered the Gulf as an oasis of stability and havens to reside and work.
That is particularly the case for Dubai, which has marketed itself strongly as a hub for enterprise and tourism. However additionally it is relevant to different Gulf nations as effectively, reminiscent of Qatar, which relies heavily on a steady stream of large-scale conferences and occasions.
Iran’s attacks on civilian infrastructure and comfortable targets – airports in Bahrain, Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Kuwait, and lodges in Bahrain and Dubai – serve to puncture this picture of secure and safe Gulf capitals.
This alternative of targets by Iran possible displays a calculation that leaders within the Gulf international locations would instantly really feel the complete influence of the conflict and push Washington laborious to discover a decision and fast.
The following focusing on by Tehran on oil and gasoline services, together with Ras Laffan in Qatar and Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia, serves as an additional and extremely consequential step. It has already triggered a forceful response from Qatar, which shot down two Iranian jets on March 2.
There may be concern amongst Gulf nations that the next step in the ladder of escalation may contain focusing on the desalination crops which can be so very important to overcoming water shortage within the area.
Weak to escalation
As important hubs within the world financial system by advantage of their reserves of oil and gasoline and centrality to worldwide transport and aviation, the Gulf nations are uniquely susceptible to additional escalation by Iran.
Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha have invested heavily in creating airways that operate as “super-connectors” able to linking any two locations worldwide with a cease within the Gulf. A Feb. 28 drone strike on Dubai Worldwide Airport, the world’s busiest for worldwide journey, illustrated the impact that Iran’s uneven responses may have on the worldwide hub mannequin that has come to dominate world air journey.
Already, closure of airspaces over Qatar and the UAE, in addition to in Bahrain and Kuwait, has stranded tens of 1000’s of passengers and created the biggest disruption to world journey because the COVID-19 pandemic.
As well as, cargo operations important to native provide chains have been closely impacted, on the similar time that seaborne commerce via the Strait of Hormuz has been similarly interrupted.
Whereas preliminary spikes in oil costs and insurance coverage premiums at the beginning of the 12-day conflict final yr fell away because it turned clear that power infrastructure was not considerably focused, the opposite has happened this time.
Peril and uncertainty
However the short-term shock to the worldwide financial system is just not what might be of major concern to the Gulf Cooperation Council members. Not because the Gulf disaster of 1990-91, with the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and subsequent Gulf Struggle, has the area faced so much peril and uncertainty.
And that’s what Iran’s leaders are banking on. The assaults throughout the Gulf by Tehran are usually not, in spite of everything, with out technique. The intent is to expand the battle, thereby considerably elevating prices to the U.S. and its companions within the Gulf.
Tehran’s hope is that the financial influence will encourage Gulf leaders to press Trump for an endgame. However in attacking capitals throughout the area, Iran dangers maybe doing the alternative: rupturing any likelihood of bettering ties with rivals within the area and as an alternative pushing them additional again into Washington’s orbit after a interval of drift.